Restoration of Lake Hakanoa: Results of model simulations

This report was requested by Waikato District Council. It covers the lake water quality of, and possible restoration scenarios for, Lake Hakanoa a riverine lake situated in Huntly. The lake is used as a recreational resource by the community. In the past it has been reported to have had very poor water quality and is known to be eutrophic. It is currently in an algal-dominated, devegetated state and has low water clarity. The shallowness of this lake makes it potentially susceptible to resuspension of sediments through wind action. A community group, Friends of Hakanoa, has been responsible for the formation of a path around the perimeter of the lake, retiring about 3.6% of the catchment from pastoral farming and creating a riparian margin. Results from more recent reports and this report indicate a trend of improving water quality which may be related to recent restoration actions such as re-establishment of a riparian margin

Parameterisation of sediment geochemistry for simulating water quality responses to long-term catchment and climate changes in polymictic, eutrophic Lake Rotorua, New Zealand

Numerical models of aquatic ecosystems that couple physics and biogeochemistry are valuable tools in aquatic ecosystem research. These models provide opportunities to test theories and to inform environmental management. In this study, we used the dynamic, process-based hydrodynamic-ecological model DYRESM-CAEDYM to simulate key ecosystem processes of Lake Rotorua, New Zealand, for six 8-year periods between 1920 and 2100 in order to evaluate the potential effects of future changes in land use and climate. Longterm variations in external boundary conditions (e.g. inflows) to the lake ecosystem are incorporated by varying the relevant input files in the DYRESMCAEDYM model. However, quantification of internal lake processes, specifically those at the sediment-water interface, presents a major challenge for long-term simulations. The sediment model within CAEDYM is ‘static’, with assumed constant sediment composition and a relatively simplistic process representation for nutrient and oxygen fluxes between sediment and water. Specifically, the model regulates sediment phosphate and ammonium release according to concentrations of oxidising species (i.e. oxygen and nitrate), and temperature in the overlying water layer. Sediment oxygen demand is controlled by dissolved oxygen concentrations and temperature in the water layer overlying the sediments. We used a ‘trial and error’ approach to estimate parameters for calibrating and validating the model, and regression modelling to infer the parameters beyond the calibration/validation simulation period (2001–2009). We observed a significant relationship in historic monitoring data between the external nitrogen load to the lake and its hypolimnetic oxygen demand as well as the bottom-sediment nitrogen concentrations. This relationship was used to hindcast and forecast model parameters for sediment nutrient release and oxygen demand in the six model simulation periods. The inclusion of a dynamic response of sediment nutrient release and oxygen demand parameters to changes in external nutrient loads enabled a more conceptually concise simulation of water quality for the simulations. This model is currently being used by regional environmental management authorities for developing an Action Plan for the restoration of Lake Rotorua

Light attenuation characteristics of glacially-fed lakes

Transparency is a fundamental characteristic of aquatic ecosystems and is highly responsive to changes in climate and land use. The transparency of glacially-fed lakes may be a particularly sensitive sentinel characteristic of these changes. However, little is known about the relative contributions of glacial flour versus other factors affecting light attenuation in these lakes. We sampled 18 glacially-fed lakes in Chile, New Zealand, and the U.S. and Canadian Rocky Mountains to characterize how dissolved absorption, algal biomass (approximated by chlorophyll a), water, and glacial flour contributed to attenuation of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400–700 nm). Variation in attenuation across lakes was related to turbidity, which we used as a proxy for the concentration of glacial flour. Turbidity-specific diffuse attenuation coefficients increased with decreasing wavelength and distance from glaciers. Regional differences in turbidity-specific diffuse attenuation coefficients were observed in short UVR wavelengths (305 and 320 nm) but not at longer UVR wavelengths (380 nm) or PAR. Dissolved absorption coefficients, which are closely correlated with diffuse attenuation coefficients in most non-glacially-fed lakes, represented only about one quarter of diffuse attenuation coefficients in study lakes here, whereas glacial flour contributed about two thirds across UVR and PAR. Understanding the optical characteristics of substances that regulate light attenuation in glacially-fed lakes will help elucidate the signals that these systems provide of broader environmental changes and forecast the effects of climate change on these aquatic ecosystems

Review of best management practices for aquatic vegetation control in stormwater ponds, wetlands, and lakes

Auckland Council (AC) is responsible for the development and operation of a stormwater network across the region to avert risks to citizens and the environment. Within this stormwater network, aquatic vegetation (including plants, unicellular and filamentous algae) can have both a positive and negative role in stormwater management and water quality treatment. The situations where management is needed to control aquatic vegetation are not always clear, and an inability to identify effective, feasible and economical control options may constrain management initiatives. AC (Infrastructure and Technical Services, Stormwater) commissioned this technical report to provide information for decision- making on aquatic vegetation management with in stormwater systems that are likely to experience vegetation-related issues. Information was collated from a comprehensive literature review, augmented by knowledge held by the authors. This review identified a wide range of management practices that could be potentially employed. It also demonstrated complexities and uncertainties relating to these options that makes the identification of a best management practice difficult. Hence, the focus of this report was to enable users to screen for potential options, and use reference material provided on each option to confirm the best practice to employ for each situation. The report identifies factors to define whether there is an aquatic vegetation problem (Section 3.0), and emphasises the need for agreed management goals for control (e.g. reduction, mitigation, containment, eradication). Resources to screen which management option(s) to employ are provided (Section 4.0), relating to the target aquatic vegetation, likely applicability of options to the system being managed, indicative cost, and ease of implementation. Initial screening allows users to shortlist potential control options for further reference (Section 5.0). Thirty-five control options are described (Section 5.0) in sufficient detail to consider applicability to individual sites and species. These options are grouped under categories of biological, chemical or physical control. Biological control options involve the use of organisms to predate, infect or control vegetation growth (e.g. classical biological control) or manipulate conditions to control algal growth (e.g. pest fish removal, microbial products). Chemical control options involve the use of pesticides and chemicals (e.g. glyphosate, diquat), or the use of flocculants and nutrient inactivation products that are used to reduce nutrient loading, thereby decreasing algal growth. Physical control options involve removing vegetation or algal biomass (e.g. mechanical or manual harvesting), or setting up barriers to their growth (e.g. shading, bottom lining, sediment capping). Preventative management options are usually the most cost effective, and these are also briefly described (Section 6.0). For example, the use of hygiene or quarantine protocols can reduce weed introductions or spread. Catchment- based practices to reduce sediment and nutrient sources to stormwater are likely to assist in the avoidance of algal and possibly aquatic plant problems. Nutrient removal may be a co-benefit where harvesting of submerged weed biomass is undertaken in stormwater systems. It should also be considered that removal of substantial amounts of submerged vegetation may result in a sudden and difficult-to-reverse s witch to a turbid, phytoplankton dominated state. Another possible solution is the conversion of systems that experience aquatic vegetation issues, to systems that are less likely to experience issues. The focus of this report is on systems that receive significant stormwater inputs, i.e. constructed bodies, including ponds, amenity lakes, wetlands, and highly-modified receiving bodies. However, some information will have application to other natural water bodies

A Global lake ecological observatory network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate processbased ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Mutational processes molding the genomes of 21 breast cancers

All cancers carry somatic mutations. The patterns of mutation in cancer genomes reflect the DNA damage and repair processes to which cancer cells and their precursors have been exposed. To explore these mechanisms further, we generated catalogs of somatic mutation from 21 breast cancers and applied mathematical methods to extract mutational signatures of the underlying processes. Multiple distinct single- and double-nucleotide substitution signatures were discernible. Cancers with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations exhibited a characteristic combination of substitution mutation signatures and a distinctive profile of deletions. Complex relationships between somatic mutation prevalence and transcription were detected. A remarkable phenomenon of localized hypermutation, termed "kataegis," was observed. Regions of kataegis differed between cancers but usually colocalized with somatic rearrangements. Base substitutions in these regions were almost exclusively of cytosine at TpC dinucleotides. The mechanisms underlying most of these mutational signatures are unknown. However, a role for the APOBEC family of cytidine deaminases is proposed

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

School Smoking Policy Characteristics and Individual Perceptions of the School Tobacco Context: Are They Linked to Students’ Smoking Status?

The purpose of this study was to explore individual- and school-level policy characteristics on student smoking behavior using an ecological perspective. Participants were 24,213 (51% female) Grade 10–11 students from 81 schools in five Canadian provinces. Data were collected using student self-report surveys, written policies collected from schools, interviews with school administrators, and school property observations to assess multiple dimensions of the school tobacco policy. The multi-level modeling results revealed that the school a student attended was associated with his/her smoking behavior. Individual-level variables that were associated with student smoking included lower school connectedness, a greater number of family and friends who smoked, higher perceptions of student smoking prevalence, lower perceptions of student smoking frequency, and stronger perceptions of the school tobacco context. School-level variables associated with student smoking included weaker policy intention indicating prohibition and assistance to overcome tobacco addiction, weaker policy implementation involving strategies for enforcement, and a higher number of students smoking on school property. These findings suggest that the school environment is important to tobacco control strategies, and that various policy dimensions have unique relationships to student smoking. School tobacco policies should be part of a comprehensive approach to adolescent tobacco use